World Bank forecasts that Nigeria's economy will grow by 3.6% during the course  of 2025

WORLD Bank economists have predicted that Nigeria will enjoy 3.6%  economic growth during the course of 2025 as government macroeconomic reforms gradually begin to have an effect and stabilise the business environment.

Over recent years, Nigeria has suffered from the effects of hyper-inflation and the freefall of the naira, both attributed to a government policy to remove petroleum subsidies. However, despite this and the continued presence of extreme poverty across the country, in 2024, Nigeria still enjoyed 3.4% economic growth.

In its recently released Africa Pulse report, the World Bank latest economic forecast, reflects a more optimistic view than that of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which revised Nigeria’s 2025 growth rate downward to 3% . This is despite the fact that Nigeria is now home to 15% of the world’s extremely poor people.

According to the World Bank, the projected Nigerian economic recovery is anchored on improved performance in non-oil sectors, notably financial services, telecommunications, information technology and a gradual rebound in oil production. Also, the World Bank anticipates that Nigeria's economic growth will further strengthen to 3.8% by 2027, assuming current reforms are sustained.

“Economic growth is expected to remain moderate in Nigeria. It is expected to increase from 3.4% in 2024 to 3.6% in 2025 and slightly increase to 3.8% in 2026/27. The gradual recovery of the Nigerian economy along the forecast horizon is driven primarily by the service sector, specifically, finance, information and communications technology services and transportation and to a lesser extent, a rebound in oil production that converges to its Opec + quota,” the World Bank report stated.

In contrast, the IMF’s outlook remains cautious, citing persistent structural constraints and weaker oil receipts as key factors weighing down growth prospects. As a result, the IMF projects that economic expansion will slow to 2.7% in 2026.

On inflation, the World Bank projects that headline inflation will ease to 22.1% in 2025, down from 26.6% in 2024, with further moderation to 15.9% by 2027. These forecasts are based on adjusted consumer price index (CPI) figures following the rebasing exercise by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in January 2025.

However, the IMF offers a less optimistic outlook, projecting inflation to average 26.5% in 2025 and spike to 37% in 2026. The IMF attributes the stubborn inflation to structural inefficiencies, a weak supply response and exchange rate volatility despite ongoing reforms.