International Crisis Group warns that naira and fuel scarcity could mar Nigerian elections

ELECTION observer group the International Crisis Group (ICG) has expressed fears that Nigeria's forthcoming polls may be marred by a combination of factors including growing insecurity and the ongoing fuel and currency scarcity.

On February 25, Nigeria goes to the polls to elect a new president and the elections will also include National Assembly governorship and states houses of assemblies contests.  However, the country is very volatile at the moment, especially with the current scarcity of fuel and naira notes, that has led to skirmishes between members of the public and security forces.

On November 23 last year, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) launched redesigned ₦‎200, ₦‎500 and ₦‎1000 banknotes, saying the naira was long overdue to wear a new look. Nigerians had been given until January 31 to hand in all old notes, after which time they will cease to be legal tender but the process has been fraught with difficulties, prompting the National Assembly to ask the CBN to extend the deadline.

Under pressure from all angles, CBN chairman Godwin Emefiele announced the new deadline is now February 10. However, the last few weeks have been sheer hell for Nigerians as they have found it impossible to get hold of these new notes and this currency scarcity has created shortages in other areas, with petrol shortages now a chronic problem too.

At commercial banks across the country, there are chaotic scenes as customers queue for

hours to get hold of these scarce banknotes. Those that manage to get hold of any money then have to spend hours queuing for fuel and to make things worse, voters who want to participate in this month's elections gave to go and queue for hours to obtain their permanent voters cards.

Warning that all this could affect the conduct of the elections, the ICG said a combination of insecurity in parts of Nigeria, rancour between political parties, scarcity of fuel and new naira notes could mar the forthcoming polls. Earlier today, the global conflict prevention and peace-building body released a 26-page report titled Mitigating Violence Around Nigeria’s 2023 Elections.

In the report, the ICG observed that voting will commence amidst wider security challenges than was the case with previous polls. It cited the activities of armed groups including Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province in the northeast, bandits in the northwest, and Biafran agitators and criminal impostors in the southeast.

Furthermore, the report said intense acrimony, especially among the major parties, has heightened tension across the country, with numerous incidents of violence. Also, the ICG observed that the election is further being challenged by the recent scarcity of petrol and the redesigned naira notes.

It said the scarcities could hamper election logistics, render many voters more vulnerable to vote-buying and further escalate tension around the polls. To mitigate risks and ensure credible polls, the ICG urged security agencies to step up operations against armed groups and protect all Independent National Electoral Commission, offices.

Also, the report called on parties, candidates and supporters to tone down their inflammatory rhetoric and re-focus their campaigns on issues that matter to the electorate, particularly the economy and security. It charged the federal government to urgently boost supplies of fuel and currency notes and ensure they are adequately available, well before the polls.

ICG tasked Nigeria’s foreign partners to sustain support for free and fair elections, including sanctioning those who incite attacks, through travel bans and other means. It said the elections are not just about Nigeria as they will have continent-wide ramifications.

An ICG spokesman said: “A peaceful election is crucial to the country’s cohesion and to its credibility in discouraging unconstitutional seizures of power elsewhere in Africa. A violent or disputed vote could aggravate Nigeria’s governance challenges and diminish its stature as a democratic leader on the continent.”