Boko Haram factions could reconcile as Abubakar Shekau is reportedly too ill to lead them

BOKO Haram's two factions look set to reconcile their difference and merge into a united terrorist group again after its much feared leader Sheikh Abubakar Shekau became weakened by ill health raising question marks about his ability to lead.

Over recent weeks, Sheikh Shekau has suffered from a range of conditions that have left him too weak to be in charge of the jihadists, whose insurgency has killed at least 20,000 in Nigeria since 2009. One senior security source said that Sheikh Shekau was suffering from debilitating diabetes among other things, that has left him grounded.

“He has high blood pressure and failing sight from diabetes-related complications. Also, he suffers from diminished eyesight from cataracts or glaucoma as a result of diabetes,” he added.

As a result of the illness, Sheikh Shekau and his lieutenants have been in talks this week about his failing health. Boko Haram split in mid-2016 over ideological differences and one faction, headed by Abu-Mus’ab Al-Barnawi, whose father Mohammed Yusuf founded Boko Haram, won the support of the Islamic State group.

Some experts have subsequently suggested that with Sheikh Shekau off the scene, the different groups could be reconciled. Nigerian authorities have repeatedly claimed that Sheikh Shekau has died or been killed on at least three occasions and that he has been replaced by a series of lookalikes.

However, he keeps appearing in videos rubbishing such claims, pointing out that he is still in control of the terrorist sect. Sheikh Shekau’s last appearance on camera was in a 14-minute video released on February 6 in which he claimed responsibility for attacks in the Borno State capital Maiduguri, and other towns.

He was previously seen on January 15 in an 11-minute video in which some of the remaining Chibok schoolgirls who were abducted in 2014 vowed never to return to their parents. Sources close to Boko Haram, said that between February and April last year, Sheikh Shekau was bed-ridden in Bulayaga, a village in the Konduga area of Borno State, near his group’s Sambisa Forest stronghold.

However, Sheikh Shekau resurfaced in a video published on May 4, 2017, rejecting claims he had been injured in a Nigerian air strike the previous day at the nearby village of Balla. In the video though, he looked frail and appeared to have difficulty reading from a prepared speech, which he held close to his face in an apparent indication of vision problems.

Boko Haram's August 2016 split caused bitter in-fighting and saw Sheikh Shekau lose men, territory and weapons. Sheikh Barnawi, whose group operates in northern Borno State around the shores of Lake Chad, is now seen as more in charge, according to sources.

Yan St-Pierre, counter-terrorism advisor and head of the Modern Security Consulting Group, said Sheikh Shekau’s removal would only have a limited effect internally and on operations. He added that most terrorist organisations always have a next man up planned because leadership could be lost at any time.