In Nigeria we need to redefine the word recession and apply it to any year in which we do not enjoy double digit economic growth

By Ayo Akinfe

(1) As 2020 looms and Nigeria is poised to hit 60, I for one am getting exasperated with the immaturity of our political, economic and intellectual debate. We want to live like a G7 nation with a GDP of $2trn but our thinking remains at the level of an agrarian and subsistence level country with a gross domestic product (GDP) of $10m. As a people, we have to elevate our level of thinking or we will perish like fools

(2) My people simply do not get it. We have a population of 200m, which is growing at a rate of 2.6% a year yet our economy is only poised to grow at a rate of 1.9% a year. Our GDP is a meagre $375bn and our 2020 annual budget is a shameful pittance of $28bn. Even if you gathered all the magicians in the world and asked them to make Nigeria work, they would not be able to pull the trick off as the figures simply do not add up

(3) To use an analogy, it is kind of like you earning $1,000 a month but you have three kids, whose school fees is $3,000 a term each. No matter how prudent you are, you will never be able to make ends meet. How do you afford to pay combined school fees of $9,000 a term when your take home pay over the three months is $3,000? The only way around it is to increase your earnings. Nigeria simply has to do that. Anything is just hot air

(4) For now, our economic recovery plan has not gone beyond fighting corruption. Great idea but we are still only saving our meagre $28bn. Fighting corruption does not address the bigger issues of inadequate income. I think the war against corruption is so popular with most Nigerians because it requires limited intellectual input. Locking people up is easy but growing an economy requires a higher level of thought, which we seem incapable of doing as a people

(5) Well, let me take my people elsewhere so we can all see how other nations with similar challenges address the same problems. Do you know that India has set itself a target annual goal of economic growth in excess of 10%? Prime Minister Narendra Modi is currently delivering 8% GDP growth but has promised to make it at least 10% per annum. No wonder he is winning landslide elections, even sweeping the traditional constituency of the Ghandi family

(6) India’s plan is very simple, to achieve 10% GDP growth by 2023/24, they need to invest $5.74trn in their economy over the next five years. That is the goal and all hands are on deck to achieve this. If you want to commit suicide over Nigeria, here is something that will depress you. India's economic growth in the January to March quarter of 2018/19 slowed to a five-year low of 5.8% and there was a national outcry that it was a very poor performance. Are we on the same page with the rest of humanity at all?

(7) Now, a recession is defined as two successive quarters of negative economic growth. However, that is a definition suited to mature industrialised economies. For poor developing nations, that definition means nothing to us. We need our own development economics with clear goals and targets and need phrases that match our reality. Our current growth rate of 1.9% is not negative but if we keep growing at this snail pace, within 10 years, our national debt will be greater than our GDP. Anything less than 10% annual GDP growth is a disaster for us

(8) India, France and the UK all have similar GDPs of around $2.6trn. Nigeria simply needs to join that club or we will perish. How Nigerians think their government can cater for 200m people with a paltry budget of $28bn is simply beyond me. We are simply not productive enough as a nation and that matter needs to be addressed

(9) Brazil is the one country with a population almost identical to us yet they have a GDP of $2trn, while ours is a shameless $375bn. Brazil has an annual budget of about $780bn while ours is an embarrassing $28bn. Our debate as we celebrate 60 years as an independent nation should be competing how has our annual budget performed compared with nations like Brazil, Mexico and Indonesia

(10) When countries like China, India, Indonesia, etc are currently debating how to prevent their economies from overheating, we are still stuck at the basic level of how to recover $100m from corrupt politicians. Yes, it will be nice to recover those monies and reinvest them in the economy but hey, that cannot be our number one priority. As we go into a new decade, we must make a solemn pledge to deliver at least 10% GDP growth every year between 2020 and 2030